Red Flag warning
#1

Good morning, red flags are up today:...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...AND
ADJACENT PLAINS...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 216...238 THROUGH
241...243...AND 245 THROUGH 247...
 
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILL AND ALL OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS...
 
.DISCUSSION...Today and tonight...Snow will decrease by midday in
the mountains by midday with dry conditions over the plains.  Winds
will remain gusty over the higher terrain.  Temperatures will remain
above normal across the plains.
 
For tonight, snow will increase in the mountains by late evening.
Winds will remain gusty over the higher terrain.  
 
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Monday through Thursday...Critical fire
weather conditions will develop Monday due to very strong, gusty
winds and dry fuels. Humidity levels will stay above traditional
critical thresholds at 15%, but the magnitude of winds (gusts
45-60+ mph likely across all of the foothills and plains, locally
gusts to ~75 mph near the foothills) and recent dryness/lack of
snow cover means very high or even extreme grassland fire danger.
We have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and
expanded it slightly to include central and southern Weld County.
Latest models have trended drier, so despite colder temperatures
Monday humidities may drop to minimums near 20% along the I-25
Corridor, with 25-30% in the rest of the Red Flag Warning areas
(e.g. southern Front Range Foothills, adjacent plains toward Weld
and rural Adams, Arapahoe, and Lincoln Counties). We're still not
out of the woods for fire danger elsewhere, but at least
humidities will be a little higher farther east and a late day
moisture surge should help alleviate the worst of the fire weather
conditions over the northeast plains. Still something to monitor
closely given the expected magnitude of winds.
 
Tuesday through Thursday will feature lighter winds. Below normal
temperatures can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slow
warmup starting Thursday. Smoke dispersal will be good in/near the
mountains and foothills Tuesday and Thursday, with a slight dip in
between on Wednesday.
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